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Morocco's Shift Towards Algeria likely to Precipitate Diplomatic Breakup and Open Conflict
HASSAN MASIKY
Washington, Nov. 10, 09--.  In an unprecedented speech, King Mohammed VI of Morocco reaffirmed his country's  position in support of Morocco’s local autonomy plan as the final  solution to the Western Sahara conflict. Unlike in past Royal speeches, Morocco's King did not make any friendly overtures toward Algeria.  In fact, King Mohammed put on notice Moroccans who have been “ambiguous” in their allegiance to the Kingdom.  You are “a patriot” or a “traitor”, the King stated in his speech referring to a group of Moroccans who traveled to the Polisario camps in Algeria to meet with Algerian officials.
The firm language used in the Royal speech is an indication of a shift in Morocco’s approach to dealing with President Bouteflika’s refusal to amend relations with its neighbor to the west. While Morocco does not expect the Algerian government to roll over and accept the Moroccan proposal for the Sahara, Moroccans have hoped to see the Algerian side come to the negotiation table with an open mind, and a desire to find a middle ground solution in an attempt to put the Western Sahara dossier to rest.

Assessing Algeria’s unreceptive attitude toward past Moroccan gestures of good will, officials in Algiers have no desire to resolve their conflict with Morocco; which bring the rationale of having a Moroccan embassy in Algiers into question.  So, what is the use of having a Moroccan diplomatic representation in a capital that has been actively involved in destabilizing the Kingdom?

In any given day, a brief overview of news story issued by Algeria’s official news agency (APS) opens a window into the anti-Moroccan mind set of the Algerian government. Such an act alone should be ground for ruptures of relations between Rabat and Algiers. How can the two governments profess to have a normalized relationship when their head of states are, clearly, at odds over a major and critical issue such as the territorial integrity of one of the two nations?

The Algerian government has the right to adopt whatever unfriendly posture with respect to Morocco’s position on the Western Sahara; however, Morocco should not play the ignorance game by playing down the political and military significance of Algeria’s strategic decisions in North Africa. The Algerian government has chosen - For whatever reason to back a separatist movement threaten a neighboring country, therefore should have to deal with the political and diplomatic consequences of such actions.

A diplomatic break up between Rabat and Algiers will send shock waves throughout the Arab and Muslim world; and it would disquiet the international community into action to resolve the outstanding issues between the belligerents. The ramifications of this severance of relationship will more likely benefit Morocco and highlight the depth of Algeria involvement in the Western Sahara conflict. France, Spain and the United States will not tolerate instability and the potential of military conflict in North Africa.

Considering that Paris has massive economic and political capital in the region, Madrid can neither afford a new immigration influx nor a military confrontation at its borders,  and the United States has been increasing its military and political involvement in North African and the Sahel: a Moroccan-Algerian conflict will have much wider implication than a local political skirmish. Thus, a Moroccan diplomatic escalation will return the Westren Sahara conflict, as a Moroccan-Algerian row, to an international crisis.

King Mohammed’s speech is a warning of possible hardening of Morocco’s foreign policy towards Algeria. As stated by the Moroccan Monarch, “the Sahara affair is a fateful question to the survival of the Nation”. Morocco has no choice but to stay in the Sahara, regardless of the price and the consequences.

 

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Comments (34)add comment

billy bill said:

moroccan power
we all know that morocco is more powerfull millitary then algeria and has more experience battle field we all remenber the sand war the moroccan armmee enter in the capital alger
04/09/10

Moroccan Patriot said:

War is not a realistic option
War is not an option. Despite all the rhetoric, Morocco will Never go to war against Algeria. It would be suicide. Morocco has dams. Algeria has oil fields and a much smaller population. All Algeria would have to do is hit the dams, and the war would be over, and all Morocco would have to do is occupy the remote oil fields and the war would be over. So let us all come back to reality. War will never happen. This begs the question... Why are Morocco and Algeria buying fighter planes and anti aircraft systems? The answer to that is the same answer to the question of what is the biggest threat and danger to both countries? CORRUPTION. Military leaders get millions in kick backs for purchasing just about anything. While these military leaders get rich and send their money out of the country, the people of both countries get the shaft. What good are F-16s? They are designed to fight conventional wars. What good are H1N1 vaccinations? It is all really sad. While Billions are wasted on weapons that can never be used, and millions on vaccines that are not only ineffective, but downright dangerous, Algerians and Moroccans continue to live in Poverty. Less than 5% of all 1st graders in Morocco and Algeria will graduate from University. Infant mortality rates remain unchanged. Corruption grips both nations, and here we are talking about the possibility of war?

Rest assured, there will be no war. War means change, and the last thing the people benefiting from millions in bribes and kickbacks want is change.
12/02/09

J. said:

...
For those on the board that think that war is not an option, good sirs that is blatant disrespect to a nation formed by men of stature and protected by the sword. Algeria must understand that Morocco is no stranger to war and will inflict the neccesary damage to all the facets of Algerian life.

To suggest that the Moroccan army consists of drunks riding in rusty material is all the ignorance I need to hear to come to the conclusions that one is clueless.

We are not brethern, Algerians are not in it for the peace and stability of the region.
11/28/09

mohand said:

...
Only one thing to know as well, is that "Sport is Sport and Politic is Politic"
11/21/09

Jawad said:

Public
Symbols and people speake out! I watched the Khartoum football game in a public place (Alg-Egypt) in Casablanca, I though Morocco was playing against Egypt. Last week, Moroccans raised the Algerian flag during the Cairo match. We are brothers! May Algeria hear us! Jawad
11/18/09

Rational Person said:

War is NOT an option
ya ikhwane, you guys speak of war as if you had been in one before. War has only negative outcomes. We do not need anymore orphans and widows in our beloved Morocco and do not want to cause harm to innocent Algerians either. This whole issue is PURE propaganda. The Moroccan and Algerian governments utilize this issue to cover up the mess they have going on internally in their countries. They keep people busy thinking about things that do not add any value to their personal lives. What both nations need is a healthcare system, schools, roads, and JOBS!!!

Hypothetical scenario: Assume Morocco goes to war against Algeria, the odds of Morocco winning are as little as a grain of sand in the Sahara. All our equipment is rusty; and our soldiers are out of shape and alcoholic. Now, let's even assume we win this war. What then? You think that will add to the welfare of the average Moroccan? you bet it won't. The elite socialites will split the wealth amongst each other as they are doing right now. We will be like other third world countries that have oil and natural resources in general. Take examples of Saudi Arabia (avg citizen is very poor, ask about it), Brazil, India, Congo, Ivory Coast, and the list goes on. On the other hand, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Holland, Switzerland, and the like live in extreme prosperity and have minimal resources. Let's change ourselves and look at the problems within us and not blame others for our misery.
11/17/09

Free1 said:

...
Well the composition of Morocco and Algeria's populations are similar; Arabs and Berber. I agree with through that a solution will no see the light for maybe another decade and war is an option as well but believe me it is not a really good option.
As a veteran my self of foreign war, it brings a lot of misery and despair which will not serve the both countries and therefore the Arab and Islamic world which is already shuddered by various conflicts within its borders.
11/15/09

majid berkani said:

arabs?
to free1

according to most genetic studies of north africa, the results show that arabization was mainly cultural thing than genetic just like the black people in sudan claiming they are arabs. therefore even though the majority of north africans call them self arabs, they are just egyptians and imazighen.
morocco and algeria will never ever reach any agreement about western sahara. the stakes are too high for any one of these two to back off. i'm afraid the only outcome of this conflict is a war nothing less can do it. morocco will not accept the saharawis demand for selfdetermenation and algeria will never accept western sahara as a part of morocco if the saharawis didn't say good for it
11/13/09

Ali the dreamer said:

none
Algeria, keep on dreaming. The famous train to the Atlantic is over.
11/13/09

Free1 said:

...
Mr. Majid,
Why are you being disrespectful? as you MAY know, all the Arabs in North Africa are from the same people; from the Arab peninsula who immigrated to the area centuries ago...it doesn’t hurt my friend to be a classy from now and then!!!
I do agree with you through that there is no brotherhood in the business of politics but as a political science familiar, this term (brotherhood) can be used in negotiation but in this case, it appears that a solution is far from reach at the present time…
11/13/09

chakib said:

enough is enough
this Sahara issue bleeds the moroccan treasury and tax payers dirhams which are badly needed for local developement projects, we invested in it and it turned out sour, it's time to damp it off the books, let them build a nation in the sand, let's not forget they are our brothers in Islam, and let's not get so hooked on a piece of real estate at the expense of our true identity as muslims, these doctrines of nationalism has devided this Umma enough, and it's time to come to our senses and quit this rhetoric. as for Algeria a barking dog will shut up once he realizes no1 cares, or runs out of saliva.. that simple to move forward.
11/12/09

majid berkani said:

all this talk about being brothers
why all these stupid comments about being brothers and stuff like that. the fact is in these countries nobody are brothers, nobody gives a damn about anyone. the best examples for this kind of mentality is at the top of the society, you really think the king of morocco or the president of algeria gives a damn about average mohamed in these countries? - no. the history of this conflict is so complicated that its hard to say if it really belongs to morocco because if it really was and has been an integral part of morocco, why did morocco give part of western sahara to Mauratania. There's no doubt for the king and his family the western sahara is a matter of survival of the throne. but for the moroccan people i think things like high unemployment, poverty are more important issues than western sahara. if it comes to war with algeria, you can be sure no members of the royal family or the elite are standing in the front line just brainwashed and poor "patriots".
11/12/09

Free1 said:

What a shame???
To Drone33,
I would like to correct a misinformation displayed by you: the U.S military does not hire illegal immigrants in its rank; you have to be either U.S citizen or a green card holder (legal immigrant) to join.
And I wish that Algeria will find a common sense and tenacity in their stupid decisions to stop harassing Morocco’s integrity; the Sahara is Moroccan and it will be that way forever.
Go through the history’s pages and you see that Algeria was part of Morocco (refer to al-Mansur al-Dahbi’s era) but the European imperialists shuddered us and they are now enjoying the show!!! Instead of putting the fact that we are brothers, Algeria is creating an atmosphere of hate and despair…
Peace
11/12/09

rodeo said:

...
Morocco should never worry about algeria if they go to war. Israel, UNited States and France will always be in Moroccan side to fund it with intellegence and Arms. Algerian high rank Military knows that. If Morocco invade Algeria and confiscate its oil and gas fiels, it will serve the US and all its allies and Morocco is one of the. The whole strategy equation in north Afrca will change.
11/11/09

MoulayTahar said:

...
One question for the moroccans...where were you the time the Sahraouis were fighting Spain for so long? At least if you were helping them, one can tell it is something to do with morocco..now it seems to me you just want it easy as a wonderful target called "the moroccan integrity"
11/11/09

Obori said:

No winners in wars
All the blame goes back to the Algerian government and its military that want to keep this conflict for their benefit. The big losers are ordinary Moroccans and Algerians. If Moroccans go to war is for the territorial integrity of their country, but what is in it for the Algerians? Just to go to war! It is about time the Algerians wake up and see what is better for them. In wars, There are no winners but tragedies. No one is invading Algeria but who care if Morocco's annexation of the Sahara is legal or not. Is it worth the Algerian blood? For all Moroccans, it is a sacred cause.
11/11/09

Algerian said:

Morocco is free to break relationships with Algeria
First of all Algerians and Moroccans are brothers, no one can deny this fact. We Algerians we will never take before God the responsibility of a war against our Muslim brothers, but at the same time we will never let down weak people without providing them with help. The Western Sahara issue is a real problem between Rabat and Algiers, between two clashing visions. Not a single nation has recognised so far Moroccan sovereignty over WS, and several nations have on the contrary recognised diplomatically Western Sahara. What is Algiers' position? Let the people of WS decide for themselves, independence or unity with Morocco. Algeria is back, this is only the beginning, its diplomatic pressure will increase against Morocco, and let me tell you something, breaking diplomatic relationship will be seen as a serious weakness. You can cry if you want or call your protectors, and with respect to Moroccans who do not deserve what I am going to say, you can kill two birds with one stone: break with Algeria and recognise Israel.
11/11/09

Hminda said:

...
To moroccan patriot...if you think you can destroy Algeria so quick..then why in a hell didn't you do it against The Poor Sahraouis that are still draguing you for 34 yrs?
And I think still, they will get their Freedom and land back as RASD libre
11/11/09

KArim by the Bay said:

...
I don't understand why Algeria insists on sticking its nose in this affair. History is on our side. The Sahara was always Moroccan, except that brief Spanish occupation. Claiming ones territory is not an invasion. I'm sure no one like to go to war but if it is necessary to preserves our territories so be it. Morocco has a lot more allies and I'm sure that would count for something.
11/11/09

BL said:

Dr.
I can't beleive my moroccans neighbors think like this.
If you think you can attack Algeria and live to tell your children about it, you have a serious brain damage. Go ahead attack Algeria.
11/11/09

Moroccan Patriot said:

Invasion of Algeria would be great for regional stability
If Morocco were to Invade Algeria and beat them quickly and decisively, it would send a very strong message about how Morocco will not tolerate Algerian interference in the territorial integrity of Morocco. It would also create regional stability, as there would no longer be any question about who owns the Western Sahara. Finally, it would send a strong message to the Spanish to end their colonization of Ceuta and Mellilia. On a practical note, Morocco has just spent billions of dollars on new F16 fighter planes and other types of weapons. What good are these weapons if they are not used on live targets? Morocco has a population that is nearly double that of Algeria's... and once Algeria has been taken out, Morocco could gain control of the Algerian oil fields. If Algeria does not want war, then they should open their borders and allow Moroccans to pass through to visit family members in Algeria. Right now, there are many Moroccans with Algerian family members who they cannot see!!! If Algeria does not want war, they need to end their support for the Polisario. Would Spain Tolerate French financial and Military support of ETA? Why should Morocco tolerate Algerian aggression? War is always good for the economy. It would create jobs, if only the jobs created by rebuilding stuff that gets blown up... this is to say nothing of all the new soldiers that would be needed to fight the war.
11/11/09

Ricky said:

...
Let s pray for peace and harmony

http://www.discountedtravels.co.uk
11/11/09

mo mo said:

...
No to war. we are both brothers and sisters.
11/11/09

Mbarek.SH said:

Sahara is the First
I believe Sahara issue is the first thing that Morocco has to resolve!
His Majesty is totally right towards those treaters who get jobs and a lot of benefits but the end they do not recognize the belonging of the Sahara to Morocco which is the least thing the MUST do!!
I believe Autonomy is a good solution to resolve this long invented issue.

Mbarek
11/11/09

Drone33 said:

War costs money
patriot,

I am not sure how your brain cells function, but war has never been a source of revenue. It costs money to fight, and Morocco simply can not afford it.
Further more, a soldier is not a productive employee, soldiers on payroll are part of the costs, unless if you turn them into pirates.

Yes, the war did create jobs for illegal immigrants in the US, but it is the productive Americans who are paying the bill. As for claiming that war will urge the Moroccans to become more innovative and invent high tech products is total BS.

11/11/09

Mourad/Algeria said:

Nothing will happen
Promise of war as promise of union, nothing will happen and life continue. warm great to pragmatic brothers in morocco...
11/11/09

A Moroccan said:

Invasion or Green march?
Are we talking here about Moroccan invasion of the Sahara? lets call a duck a duck!
11/11/09

karroum said:

Sahara is Moroccan
Sahara is Moroccan and will be for ever.
11/10/09

majid berkani said:

patriotic?
what is there to be patriotic about?
The king and his friends are living the good life and the people of morocco is seen as nothing but simple subjects to the king. will westeren sahara really benefit the wider public or will it only benefit the king and the makhzen? thats the quistion that one has to ask himself. this speach really sounds like bush's speach where the quistion was "wether you're with us or with them".
i think as a simple moroccan amazigh i couldn't care less about western sahara. but at the same time i understand that, for the king and the makhzen the sahara quistion is a vital issue they can not afford to loose, but for the ordinary moroccan i doubt western sahara will change anything.
11/10/09

kalid m said:

...
Official Morocco has had a conciliatory attitude towards Algeria's policy for too long. Their refusal to allow border crossing like any other civilized nations is a sign of a deep rooted hostility. The hosting of the lame duck Polisario is becoming insignificant.
Calling off the decade old double speak policy by M6 may lead to political hostility. War is not a viable option for either nation, the Iran/Iraq conflict is still fresh in everybody's mind. The problem is psychological, Algeria is always in need of a scare crow,somebody they love to hate, their all time permanent favorites are France and Morocco, the alternates are: Zionists,Islamists,Kabyles,Baathistes,Lybia,right now Egypt. As expressed by Malek Ben Nabi, great Algerian thinker:"Algerian people are apt to colonized" and if they're not they will be restless.
11/10/09

E.Hamid said:

...
As one who has lived long enough and have watched the political developments in the region, I can say, there will not be a WAR. I think such scenario has been put to rest during: " La guerre des Sables - 1963" and Boumedienne and Hassan lived to regret the war consequences.
In this conjuncture Algeria can not afford a war, as they are still facing the DAILY UPRAISINGS within their Country= Jihadists, Unhappy Citizen, Labor Unions, hunger, poverty and the list is long. Morocco on the other hand can not afford a war either as it does not have the financial means ( or the military superiority) to conduct a war that would destroy its economy and hamper the Government Investments needed to build, educate, provide health services and the list is long.
Also, there is a 3rd element in this game= The International Community: Many Nations of the World have invested their hard earned cash in Morocco's economy because of its political stability and pragmatism, therefore they wish to reap the profits that should be the pay off. Example, The US has 122 Corporations invested in Morocco, add to it France, Spain, Russia, China, The Gulf States and the list is long.We shall all remember that Politics are motivated by "Startegic Interest". In this case the strategic interest of the International Community is their Investmnents that should pay off and not be hampered by a war that neither party ( Algeria/Morocco) can win.
History did teach us that when Morocco and Spain came to odds because of the "Peresil" Island fiasco, the US through Collin Powell burned the midnight oil to resolve the situation.
Also a war between Morocco and Algeria will invite some unwanted guests= AlQaida and we know neither Morocco nor Algeria want these folks being an integral part of any conflict.
Politics are dirty= do we know what's on the mind of M6 or Boutef? could this be gesturing for local consumption? Might be.........one would never know. Time will tell......!
11/10/09

Hicham82 said:

yes we care!
As a moroccan citizec I care for the moroccan Sahara.
11/10/09

Moroccan Patriot said:

A solution to Moroccan unemployment
If Morocco declares war on Algeria. Will people still have to offer bribes to join the Moroccan military? The western Sahara is a part of Morocco. Nobody questions this. I certainly do not. The only question is what are the benefits of a potential war with Algeria? I for one choose to see the glass as half full. One serious benefit may be a reduction in unemployment in Morocco. With a full on war, perhaps unemployed young Moroccans will no longer have to offer bribes to join the military, and this will reduce unemployment numbers in Morocco. Perhaps the war will bring technological advances. The western Sahara is rich in natural resources that could be used by Morocco. It is like Mexico sending military support to insurgents in Texas... The US would not tolerate it, and Moroccans should not tolerate a similar action on the part of Algeria. I think a war between Morocco and Algeria would be great for the Moroccan economy. It might even result in Morocco taking back Ceuta and Mellilia from Spain. Once the spanish see Moroccan troops in action, they will also end their colonization of the two Moroccan port cities. Whats the use of spending billions on new f -16 fighter craft if not to use them?
11/10/09

nabilino said:

...
I think that the masses have no say in this. Both Moroccans and Algerians don't care that much about the Sahara and are willing to put it aside to avoid conflict. Yet, the elite are trying to heat up things and set the region for political turmoil.
Mistakes were made on the Sahrawi people from the Moroccan regime when they left them deal with the Spanish coloniser by themselves, and from the Algerian regime when they raged war on Morocco, the natural father of the land, and left the people to suffer the consequences.

Very sad what's happening.
11/10/09

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