Morocco's Drought Threatens Economic Growth

LAHCEN ACHY

07/11/12

According to the latest forecasts, economic growth in Morocco will not exceed 2.5 percent this year. The culprit is poor weather conditions that have hit the country’s agricultural sector. Morocco did indeed experience a wave of extreme cold during the first months of the cropping season, followed by a drought that has persisted until now.

Did Algeria Avoid The Arab Spring?

LAHCEN ACHY

06/05/12

Algeria’s recent parliamentary elections, with the ruling party winning almost half of the seats, left some wondering if the country could elude the democratic change sweeping its neighbors. In a Q&A, Lahcen Achy explains that Islamists did not fare well in the elections, despite the rise of Islamist parties in Egypt and Tunisia, because the main Islamist party is still banned and Algerians are scarred by the memories of the country’s civil war.

Morocco: Stalling Economy

LAHCEN ACHY

05/29/12

In Morocco, it took three months of give-and-take between the government and the legislature for the 2012 budget to be approved by both parties. Given the difficult economic circumstances at both the domestic and the international levels, this is hardly surprising.During the first months of 2012 the average oil price for a barrel of oil exceeded $100. Morocco imports more than 95 percent of its oil, and slow economic growth in Europe has negatively impacted Moroccan exports, tourism and remittances from the more than three million Moroccans living there.

Arab Spring Revives Maghreb Integration

LAHCEN ACHY

03/07/12

The past few weeks have witnessed intense diplomatic activity among the five Arab Maghreb countries—Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania, and Libya. With the Arab Spring and widespread economic malaise due to both domestic and external factors, these countries are revisiting the long-dormant Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) agreement in the hopes of jointly overcoming the challenges they face. 

Breakdown of the Arab Authoritarian Bargain

LAHCEN ACHY

01/10/12

All across the Middle East, authoritarian leaders’ legitimacy has been eroded by their inability to provide what their people need and want. The uprising that erupted in Tunisia a year ago and swept across the region took most governments, experts, and international organizations by surprise. The former rulers of Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have been deposed. Syria and Yemen are embattled. And the remaining Arab countries, in response to mass protests and dissatisfaction, and in the hopes of avoiding the revolutionary winds, are making political concessions and offering handouts to their people.

Constitutional Monarchy

LAHCEN ACHY

06/08/11

When King Mohammed VI announced broad changes to Morocco’s constitution in March, he signaled a shift from an absolute to a constitutional monarchy. The new, elected government that results from these changes will be accountable to parliament, have an independent judiciary, offer a more decentralized governance system, provide broader individual liberties and offer women the same chance of winning elected office as men.

Algeria: Why Did Protests Fail to Gain Momentum?

LAHCEN ACHY

04/02/11

Protests in Algeria erupted at the same time as in Tunisia. Like Tunisia, Algeria witnessed several self-immolations of unemployed youth. It also faces similar socio-economic conditions to Egypt and Tunisia--including high levels of unemployment, particularly among youth; widespread corruption and a large bureaucracy; and a lack of transparency. Unlike elsewhere in the region, however, social unrest in Algeria did not spread throughout the country.

Algeria’s Oil Revenues Will Not Prevent Social Upheaval

LAHCEN ACHY

02/09/11

The recent announcement by Algeria’s president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, that he will end the country’s 19-year-old state of emergency law was welcome news to opposition parties and civil society groups. But unless its leaders quickly address the major structural problems plaguing its economy and increase government oversight, Algeria’s protests will likely grow.

Tunisia: The 'Economic Miracle' That Never Was

LAHCEN ACHY

01/12/11

The recent suicide of an unemployed 24-year-old man in Tunisia -- who electrocuted himself by touching a high-voltage electrical pole after shouting "no for misery, no for unemployment" — and the ensuing unrest are signs of the frustration and despair felt by the country's youth as Tunisia's economy slows.

 Even as the level of education among job seekers in Tunisia has improved, the government has failed to make policies guaranteeing enough job creation to absorb new entrants to the labor market, especially among those with university degrees.



The Maghreb and the Global Economic Crisis: When Does the Tunnel End?

LAHCEN ACHY

09/29/09

Due to capital flows restrictions, shallow financial markets and conservative exchange rate policies, the Maghreb—Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia—escaped the first wave of the global crisis, unlike most developing regions. However, it has been severely affected by dramatic falls in commodity prices, world trade, remittances, and foreign investment. Abundant rainfall has rescued the large agricultural sectors in Morocco and Tunisia, and a large public investment boost is mitigating the effects of the crisis in Algeria. Despite expectations of positive economic growth for 2009 in the Maghreb, major fiscal and social challenges still lie ahead.

Algeria’s Belated and Inadequate Response to the Economic Crisis

LAHCEN ACHY

09/01/09

Lahcen Achy

As some countries, especially in Asia, were officially declaring the beginning of their post-crisis recovery period, Algeria was only on the verge of launching its crisis-response package. The Algerian government wasted months denying the impact of the international economic crisis on its economy. Its economic indicators for 2009 were predicted to deteriorate as economic growth fell. In particular, there has been a severe decline in the country’s exports, which are primarily hydrocarbon products.